Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| O/U 38.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| O/U 40.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 42.5 | 73% |
| O/U 44.5 | 68% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 67% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| O/U 46.5 | 62% |
| O/U 48.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Clemson vs. California | 53% |
| O/U 50.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Clemson O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| California 1H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| California 2H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Clemson 2H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| California O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Clemson 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Clemson O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| California Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| California Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| California Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| California Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| California Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| California Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| California Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| California Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| California 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| California Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| California Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Clemson Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| California Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clemson vs. California: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 49% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| California 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| California 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| O/U 52.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Clemson O/U 27.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| O/U 54.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| California O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Clemson 2H O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| O/U 56.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Clemson O/U 30.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| California O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| O/U 60.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| California 1H O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| Spread -11.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| California 2H O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| O/U 62.5 | 22% |
| Spread -12.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| O/U 66.5 | 17% |
| Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| O/U 68.5 | 13% |
| O/U 70.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 9% |
| Spread -18.5 | 8% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 93% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Clemson vs. California. In the upcoming college football game between Clemson and California, scheduled for September 25 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Clemson" if Clemson win the game. This market will resolve …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $273K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Clemson vs. California" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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