Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 37.5 | 91% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 89% |
| Spread -2.5 | 88% |
| O/U 39.5 | 87% |
| Spread -3.5 | 86% |
| Spread -4.5 | 85% |
| Spread -5.5 | 84% |
| O/U 41.5 | 83% |
| O/U 43.5 | 83% |
| Spread -6.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| Spread -7.5 | 79% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| O/U 45.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| Spread -10.5 | 73% |
| Spread -11.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| O/U 47.5 | 70% |
| Spread -13.5 | 69% |
| O/U 49.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Spread -15.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| Spread -14.5 | 65% |
| O/U 51.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 62% |
| Spread -16.5 | 61% |
| Spread -19.5 | 59% |
| Spread -18.5 | 58% |
| O/U 53.5 | 57% |
| Spread -17.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| O/U 55.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -36.5 | 50% |
| Spread -39.5 | 50% |
| Spread -42.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| O/U 57.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 47% |
| Spread -25.5 | 44% |
| Spread -26.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Spread -21.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| O/U 59.5 | 40% |
| Spread -23.5 | 40% |
| Spread -29.5 | 38% |
| Florida State O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| Spread -24.5 | 37% |
| O/U 61.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| Florida State O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Spread -27.5 | 33% |
| Spread -28.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| O/U 71.5 | 27% |
| Spread -32.5 | 27% |
| O/U 65.5 | 25% |
| Spread -30.5 | 25% |
| O/U 67.5 | 24% |
| O/U 73.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Florida State O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| Florida State O/U 26.5 | 22% |
| O/U 69.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 18% |
| Spread -35.5 | 15% |
| Florida State vs. Miami (FL) | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 11% |
| Spread -38.5 | 11% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Florida State vs. Miami (FL)" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 92% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming college football game between Florida State and Miami (FL), scheduled for October 17 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Florida State" if Florida State win the game. This marke…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $285K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Florida State vs. Miami (FL)" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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