Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| Spread -0.5 | 82% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 82% |
| UConn O/U 23.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 77% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| UConn O/U 26.5 | 76% |
| Spread -3.5 | 75% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 70% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| UConn O/U 29.5 | 65% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| Spread -7.5 | 62% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 62% |
| O/U 49.5 | 60% |
| Spread -8.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| Spread -9.5 | 58% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| O/U 51.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 55% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| UConn 1H O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| UConn 1H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Spread -12.5 | 54% |
| UConn 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| UConn O/U 32.5 | 52% |
| Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| UConn O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| UMass O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| UMass O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| UMass O/U 32.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| UMass O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| UMass O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 45% |
| Spread -15.5 | 44% |
| Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| O/U 55.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| UConn O/U 35.5 | 41% |
| O/U 57.5 | 40% |
| Spread -17.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 39% |
| Spread -18.5 | 36% |
| Spread -19.5 | 36% |
| UMass O/U 23.5 | 34% |
| Spread -20.5 | 33% |
| O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| O/U 61.5 | 29% |
| Spread -21.5 | 29% |
| Spread -22.5 | 26% |
| O/U 63.5 | 25% |
| 1H Moneyline | 24% |
| Spread -24.5 | 23% |
| O/U 65.5 | 20% |
| Spread -27.5 | 19% |
| UMass vs. UConn | 18% |
| Spread -0.5 | 18% |
| Spread -1.5 | 17% |
| Spread -2.5 | 16% |
| O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| Spread -30.5 | 14% |
| O/U 67.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| O/U 71.5 | 12% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| Spread -28.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Spread -34.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 7% |
| O/U 75.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 88% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: UMass vs. UConn. In the upcoming college football game between UMass and UConn, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game. This market will resolve to "UConn" if …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $124K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: UMass vs. UConn über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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