Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 99% |
| Spread -2.5 | 98% |
| Spread -3.5 | 98% |
| Spread -4.5 | 98% |
| Spread -5.5 | 98% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 98% |
| Spread -6.5 | 97% |
| Spread -7.5 | 97% |
| O/U 35.5 | 97% |
| O/U 37.5 | 97% |
| Spread -8.5 | 96% |
| Spread -10.5 | 96% |
| Spread -9.5 | 96% |
| Spread -11.5 | 96% |
| Spread -13.5 | 94% |
| Spread -14.5 | 94% |
| O/U 39.5 | 94% |
| O/U 41.5 | 94% |
| O/U 43.5 | 94% |
| Spread -12.5 | 94% |
| Spread -15.5 | 94% |
| Spread -16.5 | 92% |
| O/U 45.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 90% |
| Spread -17.5 | 89% |
| Oregon State O/U 35.5 | 89% |
| Spread -19.5 | 87% |
| Spread -18.5 | 86% |
| Spread -20.5 | 84% |
| O/U 47.5 | 84% |
| O/U 49.5 | 82% |
| Spread -21.5 | 81% |
| Spread -22.5 | 80% |
| Spread -23.5 | 78% |
| O/U 51.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 73% |
| Spread -24.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 69% |
| O/U 53.5 | 67% |
| Spread -25.5 | 67% |
| Spread -26.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Spread -28.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 55.5 | 62% |
| Spread -32.5 | 57% |
| O/U 57.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Oregon State O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| Oregon State O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| Spread -31.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 51% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Washington State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| Washington State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Spread -34.5 | 41% |
| O/U 61.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Spread -38.5 | 37% |
| Spread -35.5 | 33% |
| O/U 63.5 | 31% |
| O/U 65.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 67.5 | 22% |
| O/U 75.5 | 21% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| O/U 73.5 | 18% |
| O/U 69.5 | 17% |
| Washington State O/U 20.5 | 17% |
| O/U 71.5 | 15% |
| Washington State O/U 23.5 | 13% |
| Washington State O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| Washington State O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State | 1% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: washington state vs. oregon state 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Washington State and Oregon State, scheduled for October 17 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington State" if Washington…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $129K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Washington State vs. Oregon State" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →