Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 92% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 88% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 77% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 72% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 52% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →