Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| O/U 37.5 | 73% |
| O/U 39.5 | 69% |
| New Mexico State O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 63% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 61% |
| Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston | 57% |
| O/U 43.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| New Mexico State O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| O/U 45.5 | 54% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 11.5 | 54% |
| 1H Moneyline | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 48% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| New Mexico State O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Sam Houston O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 43% |
| Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 49.5 | 42% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Sam Houston O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 51.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 53.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 29% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| Sam Houston O/U 35.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 27% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Sam Houston O/U 26.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 61.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| O/U 73.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 79% Chance für prognose: new mexico state vs. sam houston. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico State and Sam Houston, scheduled for October 21 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico State" if New Mexico …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $151K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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