Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Cowboys O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 85% |
| O/U 24.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 81% |
| Giants O/U 14.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Cowboys O/U 17.5 | 79% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| O/U 38.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Giants O/U 17.5 | 72% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 71% |
| Cowboys O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 69% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| Cowboys O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| O/U 44.5 | 62% |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | 60% |
| Spread -0.5 | 60% |
| O/U 45.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| Cowboys O/U 22.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 58% |
| 1H Moneyline | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 57% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Cowboys O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| O/U 47.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Cowboys O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Cowboys O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Cowboys O/U 27.5 | 52% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Giants 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Cowboys Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Cowboys vs. Giants: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-13 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Giants 1H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| O/U 48.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 25+ | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 7-12 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 14-20 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 13-18 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 21+ | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 49.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| O/U 52.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 1-6 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 51.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Cowboys O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| Giants O/U 29.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| O/U 54.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 56.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Cowboys O/U 31.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| O/U 60.5 | 19% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -19.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 20.5 | 17% |
| O/U 62.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 66.5 | 9% |
| O/U 68.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 93% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Cowboys vs. Giants. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 8:20PM ET: If Cowboys wins, the market will resolve to "Cowboys". If Giants wins, the market will resolve to "Giants". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $77K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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