Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 197.5 | 93% |
| O/U 199.5 | 90% |
| O/U 201.5 | 88% |
| Suns O/U 102.5 | 88% |
| Warriors O/U 94.5 | 87% |
| O/U 203.5 | 86% |
| Suns O/U 104.5 | 83% |
| O/U 205.5 | 82% |
| O/U 207.5 | 80% |
| Warriors O/U 96.5 | 80% |
| Suns O/U 106.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 90.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 92.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| O/U 209.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 94.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 96.5 | 75% |
| Warriors O/U 98.5 | 74% |
| Suns O/U 108.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 211.5 | 72% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 71% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| O/U 213.5 | 68% |
| Warriors O/U 100.5 | 68% |
| Suns O/U 110.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 65% |
| O/U 215.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 63% |
| Warriors O/U 102.5 | 62% |
| O/U 217.5 | 61% |
| Suns O/U 112.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 219.5 | 55% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 104.5 | 55% |
| Suns O/U 114.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 92.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| O/U 221.5 | 51% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 106.5 | 49% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 223.5 | 46% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 224.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 42% |
| O/U 225.5 | 41% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 227.5 | 37% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 229.5 | 34% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5 | 33% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Suns O/U 120.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 32% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 231.5 | 30% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 29% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| O/U 233.5 | 26% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 25% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 24% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 24% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 24% |
| O/U 235.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Suns O/U 124.5 | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 237.5 | 20% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Suns O/U 122.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 17% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Suns O/U 126.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Spread -23.5 | 15% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -25.5 | 12% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Spread -27.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -29.5 | 8% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 6% |
| O/U 251.5 | 6% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 29.5 | 6% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -18.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -22.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Warriors vs. Suns — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 93%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 10:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If the game is postpon…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $131K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Warriors vs. Suns" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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