Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| O/U 27.5 | 96% |
| O/U 29.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 94% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 92% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 36.5 | 90% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 87% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 37.5 | 86% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 38.5 | 85% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 39.5 | 84% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 84% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 83% |
| O/U 40.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 81% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 42.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 73% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 73% |
| O/U 44.5 | 72% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| O/U 45.5 | 70% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| O/U 46.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| O/U 47.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 63% |
| O/U 48.5 | 62% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 62% |
| O/U 49.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| O/U 50.5 | 57% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 51.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 52% |
| Bears vs. Falcons | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 21+ | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| O/U 53.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 54.5 | 44% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 42% |
| O/U 55.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| O/U 57.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 58.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 29% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 61.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 63.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 62.5 | 24% |
| Bears vs. Falcons: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 67.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Safety? | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: bears vs. falcons 97%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Falcons, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game. This market will reso…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $264K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Bears vs. Falcons auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Bears vs. Falcons" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →