Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| O/U 23.5 | 90% |
| O/U 25.5 | 90% |
| O/U 26.5 | 88% |
| O/U 27.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| O/U 29.5 | 83% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| Jaguars O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| O/U 32.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| Browns O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 35.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Jaguars O/U 15.5 | 65% |
| Jaguars O/U 21.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| 2H Moneyline | 58% |
| O/U 37.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Browns O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Browns Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| Browns O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Browns Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Browns O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Browns O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Browns O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Browns O/U 26.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| Browns O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -20.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Browns 1H O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 32% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Browns O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 22% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| O/U 50.5 | 20% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 51.5 | 18% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 53.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 16% |
| Browns 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 13% |
| Browns 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 55.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Browns 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 1-6 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Browns 1H O/U 16.5 | 6% |
| Browns O/U 28.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 7-12 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 25+ | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 13-18 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 19-24 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Browns vs. Jaguars. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 21% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $168K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Browns vs. Jaguars auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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