Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 27.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 91% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Rams O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| Rams O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 31.5 | 86% |
| O/U 32.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 33.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 34.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| Rams 1H O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Rams O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Rams O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| O/U 38.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| O/U 39.5 | 66% |
| Rams O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| O/U 40.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| Rams O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Rams vs. Broncos | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 43.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Rams Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Rams vs. Broncos: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rams 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Rams 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| Rams O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Rams 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Rams O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 44% |
| O/U 46.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| O/U 47.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| Rams 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Rams O/U 26.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| O/U 50.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| Rams O/U 27.5 | 29% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 52.5 | 27% |
| O/U 53.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Rams 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| O/U 54.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| O/U 55.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Rams O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 57.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Rams 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Rams 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 61.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 65.5 | 6% |
| O/U 67.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 96% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Rams vs. Broncos. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 8:20PM ET: If Rams wins, the market will resolve to "Rams". If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game is postponed, thi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $133K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Rams vs. Broncos auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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