Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 33.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| O/U 37.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 38.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 66% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| O/U 49.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| O/U 50.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 51.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| O/U 52.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 54.5 | 36% |
| O/U 55.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 56.5 | 32% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 57.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 58.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Chargers vs. Bills | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 60.5 | 22% |
| O/U 61.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| O/U 63.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 64.5 | 15% |
| O/U 65.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 97% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Chargers vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Chargers wins, the market will resolve to "Chargers". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $183K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Chargers vs. Bills auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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