Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| O/U 29.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| O/U 33.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 86% |
| Jets O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| O/U 36.5 | 82% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 77% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| O/U 44.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| O/U 45.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 58% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jets vs. Lions: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Jets Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| O/U 49.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 46% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 44% |
| Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| O/U 51.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Moneyline | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| Jets O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Jets 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| O/U 55.5 | 29% |
| Jets vs. Lions | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Jets 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| Spread -19.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 61.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| O/U 62.5 | 15% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Jets O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Jets 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| O/U 65.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Jets 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 96% Chance für prognose: jets vs. lions. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Jets wins, the market will resolve to "Jets". If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If the game i…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $454K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Jets vs. Lions auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Jets vs. Lions" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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