Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| O/U 27.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 85% |
| O/U 29.5 | 83% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 31.5 | 78% |
| Seahawks vs. Commanders | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| 1H Moneyline | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 65% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 60% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 59% |
| O/U 37.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks vs. Commanders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 40.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 38% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| O/U 46.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 30% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 48.5 | 26% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| O/U 49.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| O/U 51.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -19.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 52.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 16% |
| O/U 53.5 | 15% |
| Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| O/U 55.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| O/U 61.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 58.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 67.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Seahawks vs. Commanders" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Seahawks wins, the market will resolve to "Seahawks". If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $378K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Seahawks vs. Commanders" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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