Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Utah vs. Colorado | 95% |
| Spread -0.5 | 95% |
| Spread -5.5 | 94% |
| Spread -3.5 | 94% |
| Spread -2.5 | 94% |
| Spread -1.5 | 94% |
| Spread -4.5 | 93% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 92% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 92% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 92% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 92% |
| Spread -6.5 | 91% |
| Utah 1H O/U 11.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1H Moneyline | 91% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 91% |
| Spread -7.5 | 90% |
| Spread -8.5 | 89% |
| Spread -9.5 | 86% |
| Spread -10.5 | 84% |
| Utah O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| Spread -11.5 | 82% |
| Spread -12.5 | 78% |
| Spread -13.5 | 75% |
| Spread -14.5 | 72% |
| Spread -15.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| Utah O/U 23.5 | 68% |
| Spread -16.5 | 66% |
| Spread -17.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| Spread -19.5 | 57% |
| Spread -18.5 | 57% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Colorado 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Colorado Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 51% |
| Colorado Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 51% |
| Colorado 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Utah O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 49% |
| Utah O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Colorado Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Colorado Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 49% |
| Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| O/U 35.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -22.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Spread -23.5 | 39% |
| O/U 37.5 | 36% |
| O/U 39.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Spread -24.5 | 36% |
| Utah O/U 32.5 | 31% |
| Colorado O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| Spread -29.5 | 28% |
| Spread -26.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 41.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 43.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| O/U 45.5 | 18% |
| Spread -30.5 | 17% |
| Spread -32.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -33.5 | 12% |
| O/U 47.5 | 11% |
| Utah 1H O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Utah 1H O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -36.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 49.5 | 8% |
| O/U 51.5 | 7% |
| O/U 55.5 | 6% |
| O/U 53.5 | 5% |
| O/U 57.5 | 5% |
| Spread -1.5 | 3% |
| O/U 61.5 | 3% |
| O/U 63.5 | 3% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| Spread -4.5 | 2% |
| Spread -5.5 | 2% |
| Spread -6.5 | 2% |
| O/U 59.5 | 2% |
| O/U 67.5 | 2% |
| O/U 69.5 | 2% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 65.5 | 1% |
| O/U 71.5 | 1% |
| O/U 73.5 | 1% |
| O/U 75.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 1% |
| Colorado 1H O/U 12.5 | 1% |
| Colorado 1H O/U 14.5 | 1% |
| Colorado 1H O/U 16.5 | 1% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: utah vs. colorado. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between Utah and Colorado, scheduled for October 17 at 10:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Utah" if Utah win the game. This market will r…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $292K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Utah vs. Colorado" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →