Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Clippers O/U 97.5 | 82% |
| Clippers O/U 98.5 | 79% |
| Lakers O/U 108.5 | 77% |
| Clippers O/U 99.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| Clippers O/U 102.5 | 71% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 53.5 | 69% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 48.5 | 69% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| Clippers O/U 103.5 | 65% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| Clippers O/U 104.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 62% |
| Lakers O/U 114.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 61% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 55.5 | 60% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 50.5 | 60% |
| Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| O/U 222.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 53% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 52% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 57.5 | 52% |
| Clippers O/U 107.5 | 52% |
| O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Keaton Wagler: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Clippers O/U 108.5 | 51% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 63.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Austin Reaves: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Darius Garland: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kris Dunn: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Luka Dončić: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brook Lopez: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Walker Kessler: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ziaire Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Lakers O/U 129.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Clippers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Lakers 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 49% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 226.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Lakers O/U 118.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| O/U 227.5 | 46% |
| Clippers O/U 109.5 | 46% |
| O/U 228.5 | 45% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| O/U 229.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 44% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Walker Kessler: Assists O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| O/U 231.5 | 40% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Keaton Wagler: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 54.5 | 40% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 59.5 | 40% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Spread -12.5 | 38% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Clippers O/U 112.5 | 37% |
| Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 36% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| O/U 233.5 | 34% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Clippers O/U 113.5 | 34% |
| O/U 234.5 | 33% |
| Lakers 1H O/U 61.5 | 33% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Clippers 1H O/U 56.5 | 32% |
| Spread -15.5 | 31% |
| Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Clippers O/U 114.5 | 30% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 22.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 29% |
| O/U 236.5 | 28% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5 | 28% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| Keaton Wagler: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| Isaiah Jackson: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Quentin Grimes: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Ziaire Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 28% |
| Lakers O/U 124.5 | 28% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 44.5 | 26% |
| O/U 238.5 | 25% |
| O/U 239.5 | 25% |
| Keaton Wagler: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 25% |
| Clippers vs. Lakers | 24% |
| Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Spread -18.5 | 23% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 241.5 | 22% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 39.5 | 22% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Ziaire Williams: Points O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Quentin Grimes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 21% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Clippers O/U 118.5 | 21% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 39.5 | 20% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Keaton Wagler: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 18% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Lakers O/U 128.5 | 18% |
| Clippers O/U 119.5 | 18% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 39.5 | 17% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Brook Lopez: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 244.5 | 16% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 16% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| O/U 247.5 | 14% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Darius Garland: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Luka Dončić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Quentin Grimes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 11% |
| O/U 250.5 | 10% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Kris Dunn: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Rui Hachimura: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Austin Reaves: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Darius Garland: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Brook Lopez: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: clippers vs. lakers 82%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Clippers win, the market will resolve to "Clippers". If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers"…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $178K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Clippers vs. Lakers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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