Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 91% |
| O/U 211.5 | 89% |
| O/U 213.5 | 86% |
| O/U 215.5 | 83% |
| Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| O/U 217.5 | 79% |
| O/U 219.5 | 75% |
| Spread -4.5 | 74% |
| O/U 221.5 | 73% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 223.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 225.5 | 65% |
| Spread -7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 226.5 | 63% |
| O/U 227.5 | 62% |
| Spread -8.5 | 61% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| O/U 229.5 | 56% |
| O/U 231.5 | 53% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 232.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| O/U 233.5 | 48% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Keon Ellis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 47% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 234.5 | 46% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| O/U 235.5 | 44% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| O/U 236.5 | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 40% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 40% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -15.5 | 39% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 237.5 | 38% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Keon Ellis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 34.5 | 36% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 239.5 | 34% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| O/U 240.5 | 32% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Spread -18.5 | 31% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 29% |
| O/U 242.5 | 28% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 44.5 | 26% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -21.5 | 25% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| O/U 245.5 | 23% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -22.5 | 22% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Nets vs. Cavaliers | 18% |
| Spread -24.5 | 18% |
| O/U 248.5 | 18% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| Spread -1.5 | 16% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| O/U 251.5 | 15% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 24.5 | 15% |
| Spread -26.5 | 14% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -28.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Egor Demin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -30.5 | 8% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Julius Randle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Egor Demin: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -32.5 | 6% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -34.5 | 5% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -11.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -36.5 | 3% |
| Spread -38.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 91% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Nets vs. Cavaliers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30PM ET: If the Nets win, the market will resolve to "Nets". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $83K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
Jetzt „Prognose: Nets vs. Cavaliers" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →