Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| O/U 32.5 | 95% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| Cowboys O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Cowboys O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Cowboys O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| O/U 36.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 88% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 87% |
| Cowboys O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 38.5 | 86% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| O/U 40.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 81% |
| O/U 41.5 | 80% |
| O/U 42.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Cowboys O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| O/U 44.5 | 75% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 74% |
| Cowboys O/U 20.5 | 74% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 45.5 | 72% |
| O/U 46.5 | 70% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 70% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| O/U 47.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 67% |
| O/U 48.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| Cowboys O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| O/U 50.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 51.5 | 56% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| O/U 52.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| Cowboys O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Cowboys vs. Packers | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| O/U 54.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Safety? | 47% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Cowboys O/U 27.5 | 45% |
| O/U 55.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 56.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 57.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| O/U 58.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| O/U 59.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Cowboys O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| Cowboys Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 63.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| Cowboys vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 67.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 1-6 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Cowboys O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 71.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Cowboys vs. Packers. In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if Cowboys win the game. This market will resolve to "Packer…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $217K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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