Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 88% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 70% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 48% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Moneyline | 45% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| O/U 48.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 34% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 29% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $626K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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