Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 23.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 25.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 26.5 | 86% |
| O/U 27.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 82% |
| O/U 29.5 | 80% |
| Buccaneers O/U 10.5 | 80% |
| Buccaneers O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Buccaneers O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| O/U 31.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 68% |
| O/U 33.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| O/U 34.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 35.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Buccaneers O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | 56% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 49% |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Buccaneers O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 1-6 | 46% |
| Safety? | 46% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| Buccaneers O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 42.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| O/U 43.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| O/U 44.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| O/U 45.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| O/U 47.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| O/U 49.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 50.5 | 17% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 52.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| O/U 53.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Buccaneers O/U 26.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| O/U 55.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Buccaneers O/U 27.5 | 10% |
| Buccaneers O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 56.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Buccaneers O/U 30.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| O/U 60.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| O/U 63.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 92% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Steelers vs. Buccaneers. In the upcoming NFL football game between Steelers and Buccaneers, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Steelers" if Steelers win the game. This market will resolve to "…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $143K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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