Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 72% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 57% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 21+ | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 42.5 | 44% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| O/U 46.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 32% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| O/U 48.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Safety? | 28% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Seahawks vs. Broncos. In the upcoming NFL football game between Seahawks and Broncos, scheduled for October 15 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if Seahawks win the game. This market will resolve to "Bro…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $596K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Seahawks vs. Broncos" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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