Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 90% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| Jets O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| Jets O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| Jets O/U 13.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 40.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Jets O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| O/U 42.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Jets vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jets Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 47% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Jets 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| Safety? | 46% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Jets 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Jets 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Jets 1H O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Jets 1H O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jets 1H O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Jets O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| Spread -11.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| Spread -20.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| O/U 50.5 | 29% |
| Spread -19.5 | 29% |
| Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Jets vs. Patriots | 25% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 23% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Jets O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Jets O/U 27.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Jets O/U 30.5 | 8% |
| Jets O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 96% Chance für prognose: jets vs. patriots. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL football game between Jets and Patriots, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Jets" if Jets win the game. This market will resolv…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $130K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Jets vs. Patriots auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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